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Dr. Norman Matloff |
We Ask for the Scientific Method, But We Get Political Science |
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11/18/2000
I've completed my reading of the NRC report. I will be writing a long article about it in the near future, but will present an outline here. What I found was that the report was not only as biased as expected, but actually in many senses even worse than the claims made by the industry lobbyists. For simplicity, I will use the terms "pro-industry" and "pro-labor" in my discussion. This makes for concise wording, but I regard this as a serious oversimplification, because in my opinion employers are shooting themselves in the foot with their hiring policies. Win-win situations may be rare in life, but in this case a broader hiring policy would indeed be good for the industry, for programmers and engineers, and for the economy. The pro-industry members, recall, include not only employers but also academics (notably the committee chair, Alan Merten), a category of people who have strong vested interests in toeing the industry party line. See Sections 2.2 and 4.5 of my "Debunking the Myth of a Desperate Software Labor Shortage" paper, http://heather.cs.ucdavis.edu/itaa.html, for details on the profoundly biased makeup of the committee membership. Though there were also some members who would seem to be pro-labor, they were not only outnumbered by the pro-industry members, but also outgunned: The pro-industry people could draw upon vast resources of information, arguments, talking points etc. amassed during the industry's huge public relations campaign of the last several years, while the pro-labor people not only had no such resources but also lacked the time to really delve into the issues. Also, when I say "the committee" here, I am referring to what appears in the report. I have been told by more than one source that there was considerable disagreement by pro-labor members concerning the content of the report, resulting in heated arguments. In the end, though, the pro-labor people apparently gave up, overwhelmed by the other side, and, due to lack of technical knowledge, still not fully confident that their own side was right. Here are some of the main points: 1. Many, if not most, of the major results from formal studies and surveys supporting the pro-labor point of view are completely absent from the report. Here are some of the omissions.
Concerning the industry claim of a labor shortage, the report omits the following:
THE COMMITTEE CERTAINLY HAD BEEN TOLD OF THE EXISTENCE OF ALL OF THE FINDINGS ABOVE. They are cited in my updated congressional testimony, "Debunking the Myth of a Desperate Software Labor Shortage" (http://heather.cs.ucdavis.edu/itaa.html), and I have mentioned them repeatedly in my e-mail list, a list whose membership included four or five of members of the committee. Indeed, the committee actually did cite some of the above references, but did not cite the key findings. The omission of these data sources is inexcusable. 2. Many of the pro-labor arguments are absent from the report, or are dismissed out of hand by a counterargument to which the committee knew there is a counter-counterargument. Granted, in some cases there are points to make for both sides, but that is exactly my point here--the committee did NOT give the reader both sides. In addition, the report is egregiously biased in many other ways. Here are some examples:
3. The committee did not face up to the grim implications of its findings, such as:
In short, this report is a travesty, a complete sellout to industry pressure. I presume the next NRC report will find that tobacco is completely healthful. The NRC, a subunit of the National Academy of Sciences, is supposed to use the scientific method; instead, they operated according to political science. |
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"Lin brings calm eye to the H-1B storm" |
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12/07/2000
I have various comments on the enclosed article:
Nonprofit, yes; impartial, no. Here is what I say in my latest update (December 3) of my "Debunking the Myth of a Desperate Software Labor Shortage" paper:
I have already mentioned many times the fact that the NRC committee makeup itself was similarly biased.
Though some people did make such a speculation, and since I am mentioned as being one of the "vocal group," I'd like to point out for the record that I myself did not make such a speculation. It certainly would have made no difference. After all, if Congress is going to ignore the findings of their own research arm (the GAO, whose report came out a few weeks before the vote), why would they pay any more attention to the NRC? Now, here is the crux of the matter, in terms of Herb:
Herb played a far more important role than this. For example, he set up the regional meetings he is referring to, and by his own admission to me last year, his original lists of invited speakers included NO critics of the H-1B program; all the invited speakers were from industry and industry allies. It was only after I made a big complaint that he did set up one speaker session for critics. Second, though Herb tries to portray his role in the research as simply that of a coordinator who actually disagreed with the committee on important points, he allowed the press to quote him extensively after the report's release, *supporting* the conclusions of the committee, including the most outrageous ones (e.g. that it is "obvious" that employers don't hire H-1Bs in order to save salary, since shipping the work to India would be even cheaper--flying in the fact of the committee's own admission that shipping the work overseas is often infeasible). The article notes, correctly, that
Though Herb is quoted here as complaining the complaints against him are "personal," I am sorry, but I stand by the quote of me above: Herb has NOT shown a "scholar's integrity" here. It is NOT "scholarly" to quote the Dept. of Commerce's 1997 finding that there is an IT labor shortage but NOT cite DOC's 1999/2000 retraction, finding that the data are inconclusive. It is NOT "scholarly" to omit any reference to several university studies showing that the H-1Bs are underpaid. It is NOT "scholarly" to omit the Dept. of Labor finding that 19% of the H-1Bs aren't even paid what was promised in the visa applications. It is NOT "scholarly" to omit trade journal surveys of hiring managers which showed disinterest in hiring older workers. It is NOT right to ignore Congress' mandate to investigate general conditions for older workers and instead restrict attention to the much narrower issue of legally-defined age discrimination (which allows shunning older workers due to salary considerations). Etc., etc., etc. As I noted before, there is a long list of such omissions, and the committee was well aware of them. It is one thing to *disagree* with those findings, but quite another to *suppress* them from the report, hiding their existence from the readers. This isn't "scholarly"; it's pure bias. If this had been a PhD dissertation, it would have been rejected out of hand, due to egregious partiality. Whatever Herb says here about his lack of influence with the committee, it's very hard to believe that he could not at least get a more balanced set of references to be included, for example. Norm Matloff
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![]() Lin brings calm eye to H-1B stormBy Herb Lin's latest report for the National Academy of Sciences — the controversial study of H-1B temporary visas for high-tech workers — has him in the kind of political hot water to which he's grown accustomed. After all, as study director of the academy's National Research Council, he's been handed politically charged subjects that range from crypto to porno. In 1996, Lin played the facilitator's role on a loudly debated government study on cryptography. Next up, he'll direct a study of "the equally calm topic of protecting kids from pornography on the Internet." But where the cryptography report became the centerpiece of debates only after its publication, the H-1B report was controversial from the start. Lin calls it "by far the most political issue I've been involved with." The nonprofit National Academy of Sciences is a private body that advises the federal government on scientific and technical issues. Two years ago Congress hired the academy to study H-1Bs. Among the conclusions of its lengthy report:
Predictably, the conclusions drew praise from corporations and lobbyists who supported an increase in the number of H-1B visas granted each year. But a vocal group feels H-1B workers are mainly used to hold down the wages of engineers and programmers. They contend that both the makeup of the academy's study committee and the results in the report were predisposed toward business. "The bias in their report is extreme, actually even worse than that of the industry lobbyists," said Norm Matloff, a University of California computer science professor who is battling to increase awareness of age discrimination in electronics and software. In an analysis presented last week, he said, "Many, if not most, of the major results from formal studies such as mine and surveys supporting the pro-labor point of view are completely absent from the report." The committee sparked controversy, particularly in its early meetings, when industry-management speakers far outweighed those who represented more of the employee viewpoint. That eased after the committee altered its meeting schedules to make them more accessible to working engineers. Still, the report's release several weeks ago outraged opponents of increased immigration. The publication date originally had been set for early October, as Congress was preparing to approve an H-1B increase of 195,000 over the next three years. But the report was 20 days late, prompting some to speculate that congressional pressure prompted a delay. Lin noted that the Congressional vote had been expected long before October. "We never thought we would be in a position to influence the H-1B vote," Lin said. "We thought it would be voted on in July. This was not delayed for any conspiratorial reason; we released it when we were through with it. We got 1,000 comments we had to respond to, and consensus [among all members of the committee] was a big part of our process. Any one person could have blocked the report, which was a huge deal. Consensus was hard-fought and difficult to reach." Critics have questioned whether the report might be an exercise in futility since it came in after the vote to increase visa allotments. But Lin, a congressional science staffer before joining the academy 10 years ago, said the study will not be wasted. "The critics will turn out to be right only if you believe this is the last thing Congress will ever do regarding H-1Bs," he said. "This report is early for the next debate." The study's goal was to provide Congress with facts that could be used in making a decision on the H-1B legislation, as well as to provide recommendations. While making some recommendations, the committee pointedly declined to estimate how many H-1B immigrants should be allowed into the country. The report called that a political issue better left to political debate. "That was an important statement, although a lot of people accused us of punting," said Lin, who holds a PhD in physics from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. "It's the role of science to look at information and say what is amenable to analysis and what's not. We didn't find any way to come to an analytical conclusion on this point. People say they are uncomfortable with the idea that sometimes there are just tough issues that have to be fought out. They want a 'rational solution,' but sometimes the decision is — and has to be — a fundamentally political one." A focal point of the criticism was computer science professor Matloff. While far from the only critic, he maintains an extensive and prolific e-mail log of the ongoing debate over immigrants and their role in age discrimination. Critic's rebuke In comments following the report's release, Matloff attacked many committee concepts, attitudes and points in detail. He also criticized Lin for not countering what Matloff considered the committee members' pro-business bias. "I had viewed him [Lin] as being very sharp and having a scholar's integrity, and had privately predicted to some people that he would at least play a moderating role, acting as a governor to limit the excesses of the many biased committee members. But at least what I see (now) is disappointing," Matloff wrote online immediately after the report's release. Lin termed the personal criticism "unfair." He said the committee, in response to Matloff's suggestions, conducted ongoing regional meetings at night to give working engineers as well as employers a chance to present their views. Other concerns expressed by Matloff and other critics were addressed throughout the report, Lin said. "We took what he (Matloff) had to say seriously," Lin said. "On some occasions he raised points that the committee thought warranted further attention, and in other cases we decided the arguments he made were not valid. There are things in the report that would not have been addressed if he had not raised the issue." The H-1B debate grows in part from the sheer difficulty of finding the truth about something as broad as the U.S. technical work force and whether it can meet future demands. Information for the report was gathered from presentations at open meetings, as well as the committee's analysis of facts culled from various other sources. The presentations were often contradictory and difficult to reconcile. Companies say they would do anything to find qualified workers, while individuals talked of layoffs and the difficulty of someone over 40 even getting an interview for job openings. "We think the data is insufficient to draw conclusions about the existence and extent of age discrimination or about many aspects of the H-1B program. Academics always say that, but this data is really bad. There's no data on the number of H-1Bs coming into IT. There's a snapshot for 1998, but nothing for '96, '97 or '99," said Lin. Some of the statistics included economic data. While it's often broad, it's available. Some members on the committee, including Lin, did not always agree with the economists. "I came into the project pretty skeptical, since my background is not in economics," Lin said. "The economists came into this not feeling that IT was different from any other industry, while technologists on the committee had the presumption that IT is different. I originally came in more on the technologist's side. I'd have to say that as the report went on, the economists made a good case to me. I had a lot of long discussions with economists. It was difficult for me, but I learned a lot." While the committee was accused of dodging some issues, not much was made of the occasions when the report went beyond its charter to raise points that members felt Congress needed to address. H-1B visas limit visitors' stays to six years, often too short a time to obtain a green card that would confer permanent status on the foreign worker. While the new law provides some leeway for those who are close to getting a green card, many of the temporary workers will have to leave the United States after six years. "One of the important issues raised in the report is the mismatch between the H-1B visas and green cards," Lin said. "We're taking in a lot of people with H-1B visas, but the country has not changed the green card rules, so the H-1B people cannot get green cards within the necessary time frame," he said. "We were not constituted to deal with the issue but we mentioned it because this is a real train wreck coming down the pike." Though Lin has become something of a lightning rod for the debate surrounding the report, he noted that it was the committee members who analyzed the data and reached the conclusions. As staff director, he said, his job was to keep the volunteer members focused and to make sure things came together properly. "In practice, what that means is that I did everything necessary to keep the process going, from arranging logistics to drafting pieces of the report," Lin said. "I am a paid staffer, and the committee members are volunteers. In any dispute between the committee and staff, staff loses. This is not a process in which staff drives the report. The committee drives the report." |
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02/28/01 |